I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.* (* The highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.įirst, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Here are a few of the media hits Taleb has received:Īnd here's what we've written about it on our site: Visit our Excerpts Blog to read an excerpt from The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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